The final CFP rankings before this week’s conference championships will drop tonight. This Friday and Saturday, the winners of major and minor conferences around the country will be determined, earning the five guaranteed playoff sports that go with it.
Automatic bids will be granted to the top five ranked conference champions, and the only certainty is that the top two will go to the SEC and the Big Ten.
The Big Ten has the edge at gaining the first overall seed because the Oregon Ducks are ranked number one and will hold that position with a win. College football betting sites favor Oregon to win.
A loss by the Ducks would open the door for the SEC champion to get the one seed, but only if the winner is the Texas Longhorns.
If both the Georgia Bulldogs and Penn State win, the Nittany Lions will likely get the number one seed as a one-loss program.
The Associated Press Top 25
1. Oregon 12-0 (vs. Penn State – Big Ten Championship)
2. Texas 11-1 (vs. Georgia – SEC Championship)
3. Penn State 11-1 (vs. Oregon – Big Ten Championship)
4. Notre Dame 11-1
5. Georgia 10-2 (vs. Texas – SEC Championship)
6. Tennessee 10-2
7. Ohio State 10-2
8. SMU 11-1 (vs. Clemson – ACC Championship)
9. Indiana 11-1
10. Boise State 11-1 (vs.UNLV – Mountain West Championship)
11. Alabama 9-3
12. Arizona State 10-2 (vs. Iowa State – Big 12 Championship)
13. South Carolina 9-3
14. Miami 10-2
15. Ole Miss 9-3
16. Iowa State 10-2 (vs. Arizona State – Big 12 Championship)
17. BYU 10-2
18. Clemson 9-3 (vs. SMU – ACC Championship)
19. UNLV 10-2
20. Colorado 9-3
21. Illinois 9-3
22. Missouri 9-3
23. Syracuse 9-3
24. Army 10-1 (vs. Tulane – AAC Championship)
25. Memphis 10-2
Boise State has been the assumed winner of the Mountain West for the entire season and will claim either the third or fourth seed in the CFP with a win against UNLV. If UNLV wins, the Mountain West winner could drop out of the playoffs completely, especially if Army wins the AAC.
The Black Knights will make a strong argument for inclusion in the postseason as a one-loss conference champion whose only defeat came at the hands of Notre Dame who is now ranked 4th.
If SMU wins the ACC title, they’ll be the third seed. If Clemson wins, they could finish as low as the 12th seed because they’ll most likely be ranked behind the Big 12 Champions, no matter who wins.
The ASU Sun Devils are favored to beat the Iowa State Cyclones. Whether the Big 12 Champions earn a bye week depends upon their final ranking. The current AP Top 25 rankings suggest the only occurrence that could jeopardize a top-4 seed is a Clemson win.