Is Donald Trump actually going to win the election, or is he merely sucking all the air out of the room like he usually does? That is the question that Americans across the nation will answer today.
The polling data has been inconclusive at best, often rotating favor between Kamala Harris and Trump, depending on the day of the week.
The betting odds represent a data point where Trump has held the lead for weeks. His campaign has retained the lead by keeping a lower profile than usual and refraining from going head-to-head with Harris.
Following their September 10th debate on ABC, Harris built a lead on Trump at online sports betting sites, but that lead vanished during October. Most political betting sites have Trump with a moneyline of -150 or better, while Harris is garnering odds in the neighborhood of +135.
Why Election Odds Are A Good Indicator Of Sucess
When constituents vote for a candidate at the ballot box, they do so based on their convictions and beliefs. Whether voting for personal gain or the future benefit of the country, the ballot is cast with the hope that their preferred politician wins.
When gamblers bet on politics, they are risking money with the intent to gain profits. In this situation, a bettor who believes Trump will win would be foolish to place a wager on Harris, even if they support her campaign.
Why Political Odds Are Not Reliable
The audience is the main reason that election betting odds cannot be relied upon as accurate polling data. The entire population or those “surveyed” is made up of sports betters, a demographic that does not represent the large majority of Americans.
Sports bettors skew more male than female, with men taking up nearly 75% of the entire category. The disparity has closed in recent years following the repeal of PASPA, but it is still largely made up of men.
One of the biggest issues being contested in this election is abortion rights. Naturally, a large portion of female voters will cast their ballots toward the candidate supporting a woman’s right to choose.
Also, since offshore sportsbooks are the only venue that accepts wagers on election results, not all gamblers are from the United States. Foreigners are able to impact the betting odds at international books, something that (hopefully) cannot occur at the ballot box.