Trump Harris Odds Suggest PA Could Swing The Election

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris facing each other for a boxing match

Entering the final seven days of the 2024 presidential election cycle, Trump holds a sizable lead in the odds to win. With early voting already well underway across most of the nation, a large segment of Americans have likely already decided which candidate they’ll be filling in the bubble next to.

Trump had been polling well among Latinos in the United States, but a few racially charged jokes issued by a comedian at a rally last Sunday have cast a negative light on his campaign.

The comedian known as Kill Tony (Tony Hinchcliffe) performed at Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden. His material is often edgy, evidenced by his shots fired during the Tom Brady roast last May on Netflix.

Hinchcliffe laid into Puerto Rico during his time at the podium, calling it a “floating island of garbage.” His routine contained other digs at various groups of minorities, but the ones directed at PR have received the most attention in the hours that followed.

There has even been division within the Republican Party, with US Senators from Florida, Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, issuing official statements condemning the remarks made against Puerto Rico.

A large contingency of Puerto Ricans live in Pennsylvania, and there is concern from Trump’s campaign that the negative attention he’s getting could affect the results next Tuesday.

The odds for betting on the 2024 election predict a Trump win in PA, but there’s still time for Harris to close before next Tuesday.

Pennsylvania (PA)

Democrat +120
Republican -160

Online sportsbooks have also broken down the odds on a county-by-county basis. This is unusual but can happen when a state is suddenly granted national importance, as occurred during the Georgia runoff elections in 2022.

PA County Election Odds

Allegheny County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 21.5 % -120, Under 21.5 % -120
Berks County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 10.5 % -120, Under 10.5 % -120
Bucks County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 3.5 % -120, Under 3.5 % -120
Butler County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 36.5 % -120, Under 36.5 % -120
Centre County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 4.5 % -120, Under 4.5 % -120
Chester County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 11.5 % -120, Under 11.5 % -120
Cumberland County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 11.5 % -120, Under 11.5 % -120
Delaware County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 25.5 % -120, Under 25.5 % -120
Erie County: Popular Vote Winner: Kamala Harris -140, Donald Trump +100
Lackawanna County: Popular Vote Winner: Kamala Harris -140, Donald Trump +100
Lancaster County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 17.5 % -120, Under 17.5 % -120
Lehigh County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 6.5 % -120, Under 6.5 % -120
Monroe County: Popular Vote Winner: Kamala Harris -160, Donald Trump +120
Montgomery County: Harris Victory Margin: Over 27.5 % -120, Under 27.5 % -120
Northampton County: Popular Vote Winner: Donald Trump -180, Kamala Harris +140
Philadelphia: Harris Victory Margin: Over 62.5 % -120, Under 62.5 % -120
Washington County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 26.5 % -120, Under 26.5 % -120
Westmoreland County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 29.5 % -120, Under 29.5 % -120
York County: Trump Victory Margin: Over 28.5 % -120, Under 28.5 % -120

Unfortunately, there are no odds posted at the moment for Dauphin County, where Harrisburg is located. The region has been mostly Democrat but did side with Trump back in 2016.

With Pittsburgh (Allegheny County), Philadelphia (Philadelphia County), and Allentown (Lehigh County) expected to remain loyal to the DNC and side with Kamala Harris, constituents in Dauphin County could decide where the state’s 19 electoral college votes go.

Political prop bets suggest that PA is the most likely tipping point state on election night.

Tipping Point State